Coming to a crap franchise near you.
1. Detroit Lions: QB Matt Stafford, Georgia
The no-brainer move here is to follow the cardinal rule of the draft (never pass on a franchise QB if you don’t already have one) and select QB Matt Stafford from Georgia. But we’re talking about the Lions here. So they’ll spend the next couple of months hemming and hawing about whether to grab someone other than Stafford, including (brace yourselves, Lions fans…WR Michael Crabtree). But after years of mishandled “bold” picks, and fresh off a record-breaking season (hold the applause) it’s time for the Lions to pretend to be smart.
2. St. Louis Rams: OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
The Rams will seriously consider upgrading their suddenly depleted Wide Receiving corps but they have a huge need at OT and Monroe certainly fits the bill in terms of value here. Monroe isn’t quite the road-grader that fellow OT Andre Smith is but his feet and agility are top shelf and he comes with the character baggage with which Smith reportedly travels. While Smith is a bit like 2008’s #1, Jake Long, Monroe is a little more like 2008 #12 Ryan Clady—and thus, the more athletic of the pair. Most observers thought Clady was the slightly better rookie performer last season. This is the easiest decision of the draft.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Andre Smith, Alabama
If somehow the Lions pass on Stafford, he won’t get past the Chiefs. But with the young gunslinger off the board, the Chiefs opt for another stud OL to pair with last year’s #1, Branden Albert. New GM, Scott Pioli understands the benefits of building from the inside out from his long tenure in New England, and the Chiefs offensive line has been atrocious. Perhaps not anymore.
4. Seattle Seahawks: WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
Seattle is actually a pretty solid team and really has no business being in this position of the draft. But the Hawks are just horrible at the WR position and will find it hard to pass on the acrobatic Crabtree. While his workout numbers could reveal a slight speed issue, thus driving him down the board a bit, Crabtree uses his body well, has great hands and would make a solid choice here.
5. Cleveland: OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
A late bloomer this year, Curry has shot up draft boards with a solid final campaign at Wake Forest. While guys like Ray Maualuga and James Laurinaitis get all the pub, Curry’s sick blend of size, speed and nastiness make him the ideal NFL outside linebacker. With Willie Mac getting long in the tooth, Curry fills a need and represents terrific value even this early. And you can mark him down as a runaway Defensive Rookie of the Year.
6. Cincinnati: OT Jason Smith, Baylor
The Bengals have a long history of shaking up draft boards with their first round selections. On several occasions, that’s meant reaching a bit for an Offensive Tackle. The book on this Smith is a bit undecided still—some experts have him as the #1 overall OT, while others see him going in the middle of the draft. But CIN desperately needs an improved line to have any chance of keeping Carson Palmer among the living, and Smith is the best one remaining at this point.
7. Oakland: DT BJ Raji, Boston College
The potential departure or tagging/holdout of all-universe free agent CB Nnamdi Asomugha will have the old dude in the poly jumpsuit looking closely at CB Malcolm Jenkins. And that pathetic excuse for a WR depth chart (are they really bringing Javon Walker back?!) will have Al kicking the tires on WR Jeremy Maclin. Nothing gives Al the shakes quite like speed and both Jenkins and Maclin will represent the shiny object that has sabotaged many a Raiders draft. But the Silver and Black will shock the world and snag the fastest rising prospect in the draft, DT BJ Raji. Raji tore it up during Senior Bowl week and it’s conceivable that he could go to Seattle at #4, so he’ll be hard to pass up at #7.
8. Jacksonville: WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
Having learned their lesson by giving an armored truck full of loot to chronic underachiever Jerry Porter, the Jags will be anxious to correct their mistake by snagging the former Missouri star. Maclin is a bit of a reach here and I’m a huge proponent of waiting until much later in the first round to ever, and I mean EVER, spend a pick on a WR. But Jacksonville is one of those teams that’s really just a piece or two away from playoff contention. Maclin would fill a gaping void in their offensive attack.
9. Green Bay: DE Aaron Maybin, Penn St
The Packers need help on both sides of the line. With all the elite OT’s off the board, they’ll look toward the defensive side of the ball to beef things up. Maybin is a bit of DE/LB slasher type who still has some room to grow physically. He’ll give them some speed off the edge to get to the passer and allow them to disguise coverages by utilizing his ability to roll back into the short secondary.
10. San Francisco: QB Mark Sanchez, USC
Former overall #1 Alex Smith is likely done in SFO. And Shaun Hill and JT O’Sullivan probably aren’t long-term solutions. While Sanchez may be a bit of a reach here, the Niners will be willing to roll the dice that he can inject some life into their offensive attack. The combines will go a long way in determining where Sanchez gets slotted on draft boards and you get the feeling he could be headed south as we get closer to April, but there are only so many QB’s to go around.
11. Buffalo: DE Everette Brown, Florida St
Brown has been another very hot name over the past few weeks. And that should only continue when he takes off his shirt and runs around like a Greek god at the combines this week. But for whatever reason, the Florida schools just don’t seem to produce quality DE’s and Brown makes me nervous. He’s the prototypical workout warrior, so he’s a gamble on greatness.
12. Denver: DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
While the Broncos will be tempted to put the finishing touch on one of the league’s most impressive offenses by snagging RB Beanie Wells here, the pressure to improve the most offensive defense in the league will be too much to ignore. With Denver’s shift to a 3-4 under new DC Mike Nolan, getting a pass-rushing DE/OLB hybrid like Orakpo will be a priority. He’s a carbon copy of Maybin and will fit in perfectly here.
13. Washington: CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
Cornerback Shawn Springs may have worn out his welcome this year, while fellow DeAngelo Hall just doesn’t have his head on straight. While CB is not a huge need position for the Skins, Jenkins has elite abilities and stud CB’s are just so hard to find. They’ll give OT Michael Oher some thought here as well. But in the end, Jenkins’ fabulous size, speed and cover skills will push the selection his way.
14. New Orleans: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
On the surface, you’d think that all the talent on this team sits on the offensive side of the depth chart. But the defense is actually fairly well stocked with talent—where they are sorely lacking is at the critical cornerback position. Even if Davis is gone at this point, I could see the Saints trading down to get better value at the same position. But if he’s still available, just go ahead and throw away that key–it’s a lock.
15. Houston: RB Beanie Wells, Ohio State
While there’s better value on the board at this point, the Texans will opt to bring in the one guy who can dramatically impact their team beginning in September. With Wells playing the role of “thunder” to Steve Slayton’s “lightning”, the Texans could be a real sleeper team next year if they can manage to sneak up on a few of the heavyweights their own division. Wells is a beast whose talent alone would have him ranked as high as any back to come out of college ever. But he’s a big contact guy who’s already carried the rock quite a bit and has had his share of injuries since bursting onto the college scene as a true freshman. Wait a minute…I think I just channeled Adrian Peterson’s pre-draft profile. Wells is worth the risk.
16. San Diego: ILB Rey Maualuga, USC
With DE Igor Olshansky likely gone to free agency and NT Jamal Williams not getting any younger, the Chargers will think long and hard about the D-line prospects still on the board. And adding another bookend OT like Jason Smith would also be tempting. But I don’t see how the Bolts can pass on Maualuga—exactly the type of filthy mcnasty linebacker that makes going over the middle a nightmare. Expect the tatted-up Samoan to team up with Shawn Phillips and Shawn Merriman to keep opposing offenses up at night.
17. New York Jets: QB Josh Freeman, Kansas St
With Brett Favre calling it quits for the 73rd time, one thing is for sure—he’s not coming back to New York. Kellen Clemens isn’t the answer and another stop-gap veteran QB won’t be either—this team needs to young. Plus, Rex Ryan takes over the head coaching duties. He’s fresh off of watching rookie QB Joe Flacco guide his former Ravens squad to the AFC Title. He won’t be afraid to roll the dice on a rookie QB with high upside.
18. Chicago: DT Peria Jerry, Ole Miss
The Bears defense is starting to show some age and a week D is something that you’ll rarely find acceptable to the hearty fans in the Windy City. As long as Lovie Smith is in charge, the Bears will continue to place a premium on the defensive line. While Jerry is a bit of a reach here, he’s a solid selection and could be one of the few rookies who sees the field as a starter from day one.
19. Tampa Bay: LB Brian Cushing, USC
All three of the Trojan backers could find themselves counting first-round money in April and Cushing should be the second one off the board. This isn’t the type of selection that makes fans weep with joy but Cushing is one of the safer selections of the first round. He may not be as flashy as his Somoan counterpart but he’s a steady leader who just consistently makes plays. Solid pick.
20. Detroit (from DAL): OT Michael Oher, Ole Miss
Having passed on the notion of grabbing a stud Offensive Tackle with the #1 overall, the Lions would be thrilled to find the massive Oher still sitting on the board when their second selection comes around. And after absolutely fleecing the Cowboys for this pick (plus two additional picks!) for the hugely over-rated Roy Williams, this pick will have people wondering if the Lions might actually have something other than a monkey running the front office for a change. Oh what am I thinking, this is the Lions…they’ll probably draft that little chimp that Ross used to carry around on Friends.
21. Philadelphia: RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
The Eagles could use a WR, and this stage of the first round is right in the wheel house for the next wave of quality wideouts. But with Moreno on the board and the perpetually ailing RB Brian Westbrook getting another year older, the Eagles will pull the trigger on this young stud. Many have Moreno rated above Wells, so Philly would be thrilled to see him slide into their laps at #21.
22. Minnesota: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
What do you add to one of the best DL’s in football? How about another monster pass rusher with a nice combination of size and speed? Jackson has been wreaking havoc in Baton Rouge for years now. Put him opposite DE Jared Allen and next to the Williams twins and you’re talking about a line that will give opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks nightmares.
23. New England: LB James Laurinaitis, Ohio St
If he’d gone pro last year, there’s a pretty good chance that the Pats would have held onto their #7 overall and snagged the mobile Laurinaitis to reload their ailing LB corp. But the Buckeye returned to Columbus for his senior year and the Pats snagged LB Jerod Mayo instead. However New England needs another linebacker for a defense that places tremendous emphasis on a having a strong front seven.
24. Atlanta: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma St
The Falcons will continue to build around their budding young QB by giving him another toy to play with at the TE position. Of the two first round TE’s, Pettigrew’s the guy who can serve as an extra power blocker, while making the occasional catch underneath when nobody’s open downfield. Pettigrew is a great blocker and has solid hands–it’s his speed that is the issue. But ATL doesn’t really need a speed guy—they need a mauler who can help clear holes for RB Michael Turner.
25. Miami: CB DJ Moore, Vanderbilt
The Fins would like to add a LB here but with Laurinaitis gone, nobody fits the bill from a value-perspective. Moore is a bit of a late riser who could slide up or down this week at the NFL scouting combines. Assuming he checks out, the Dolphins won’t hesitate to snag the lightning quick Moore.
26. Baltimore: WR Percy Harvin, Florida
For the first time in their Baltimore history, the Ravens have a quality young quarterback. Now they need to get him some weapons. Harvin is a jitterbug of a WR who doubled as a RB at Florida. He’s like the WR version of Reggie Bush—a guy you can use in a lot of different ways over the course of a game. If OC Cam Cameron has any say in the matter, he’ll be drooling over the multi-talented Harvin, who will remind him of Ted Ginn Jr, his 2007 first rounder as Head Coach of the Dolphins.
27. Indianapolis: WR Darius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
WR Marvin Harrison is just about done and Anthony Gonzalez is proving to be a solid but unspectacular over-the-middle type. The Colts need another high-impact WR to make their offense click, so they’ll opt for the talented but mercurial Heyward-Bey. A classic boom or bust type, the Colts will assume QB Peyton Manning can keep him in check and pull the trigger on this high-upside flyer.
28. Philadelphia (from CAR): DE Larry English, Northern Illinois
With the offensive side of the ball address at pick #21, the Eagles will turn to defense and roll the dice on another DE/LB tweener (this draft is full of them) in English. DE Trent Cole was a monster in 2008 but the Eagles could use an upgrade on the other side to do battle in the trench warfare known as the NFC East.
29. New York Giants: LB Clay Matthews, USC
And speaking of trench warfare in the NFC East, the Giants will look to replenish their defense as well. With a couple of free agent defections at Linebacker, the G-Men will find the high-intensity motor of Matthews perfect for their style of play. And his linebacking bloodlines (his father of the same name was a Pro Bowl linebacker in the 80’s) won’t hurt his cause at all.
30. Tennessee: CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest
Cornerback Cortland Finnegan really emerged in 2008—helping the Titans to officially move on from the Pac-Man era. But the other corner of the secondary is in need of an upgrade with the aging Nick Harper winding down. Smith is a lot like Finnegan—small, fast and pesky. He could step right in and play nickel, then eventually replace Harper in the lineup.
31. Arizona: C Al Mack, Cal
It’s rare that a Center comes off the board before the first Guard but this could be one of those years. Mack is an elite Center prospect who will be very attractive to Cardinals HC, Ken Wisenhunt—a coach who places a huge priority on solid line play. The Cards will jump at the chance to slide Mack into the middle of their offense for the next decade.
32. Pittsburgh: OT Eben Britton, Arizona
Despite snagging the Lombardi Trophy this past season, the Steelers offensive line was clearly the weak spot on this team. And since the Steelers probably lead the league in using top picks to beef up the offensive and defensive lines, look for Pittsburgh to grab the highest rated OL they have left on their board, regardless of who that is. Britton has been rising up draft boards lately, so we’ll give him the nod here.
