1. Jason Witten/Cowboys
Witten had a solid season but not the spectacular campaign that most were expecting. Tony Romo and Marion Barber both battled injuries, The Boys shook things up by adding Roy E Williams at mid- season, TO continued to whine around the clock and the Cowboys offense was generally out of synch. But we’re looking for Jerra Jones to finally wake up, smell the White Rock Coffee and cut the cancerous TO from his football team. With TO out of the mix, Romo and Witten would be free to connect with reckless abandon. You know, that just doesn’t sound right…but draft Witten anyway.
2. Tony Gonzalez/Chiefs
Fantasy experts have been predicting the demise of Tony Gonzalez for about five years now. And the aging future hall-of-famer is certainly inching closer to that crushing season where he suddenly looks like he’s 50 and just falls off a cliff statistically. But his 2008 campaign led all TE fantasy football scoring and new QB Tyler Thigpen relies on him heavily. So until proven otherwise, Gonzo will remain near the top of this list.
3. Dallas Clark/Colts
Similar to what should go down in Lone Star State, there’s a scenario brewing in Indy where it appears Marvin Harrison might be moving on. If that happens, Dallas Clark becomes the default #2 option behind Reggie Wayne. You could argue that he’s been that for the past couple seasons, but it will be more pronounced in 2009. Like Witten, Clark is really just hitting the peak years of his career. And because he has the most reliable QB in football, he’s a very safe bet to produce consistently.
4. Antonio Gates/Chargers
Gates has fallen off a bit the past couple of years and never seemed completely right in 2008. Plus, Norv Turner involves the wide receivers a bit more than his predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer. But he’s still a massive man with deceptive speed—making him a serious match-up problem for any team without an OLB or SS who can not only match him stride for stride but also bring him down once he has the football. There aren’t many who can keep this guy from getting his numbers each week.
5. Chris Cooley/Redskins
The speedy Redskin H-Back gets the nod here for his extremely consistent production over the past few years. There’s no reason to expect him to rise much above this level in 2009 but also no reason to expect him to decline at all. And because he’s not the sexy, high-upside pick that John Carlson or Owen Daniels might be, you can probably snag him a bit later in your draft. Cooley is a dependable scorer who will have an occasional 2-TD game that will help you eke out a few games.
6. Daniel Owens/Texans
Talk about a sleeper pick in 2008—you probably could have picked this guy up as a free agent after your draft. But he finished around #5 overall and there’s room for him to take it a step further next season. We like Houston to make another leap in 2009—perhaps playing the role of next season’s Cardinals (if only they played in the same crap NFC West, they’d be golden). And a stronger team in 2009 should only improve Owens’ numbers.
7. John Carlson/Seahawks
It took Carlson a few games to get rolling, but toward the end of the season, he was the #1 receiving option on a Seahawks team that was just decimated at WR. The Hawks will fix that this off-season but there will still be plenty of flying footballs to go around. Carlson has a good rapport with QB Matt Hasselbeck and their timing will only improve with a full off-season to get even more in synch. Bigger names will come off the board earlier, so Carlson could prove to be a tremendous value.
8. Kellen Winslow Jr/Browns
I wonder how much this guy thinks about that day he was popping wheelies on his new cycle. All the talent in the world with a 10 cent brain. And now he’s just a never-ending string of injuries. It’s strange how the body works—it just seems like one football injury begets another then another and another. They don’t even need to be related—but once they start, they’re hard to stop. And as great as Winslow could be, he’s just not worth risking as a starting TE anymore. The dude with the tude just can’t stay healthy.
9. Heath Miller/Steelers
Miller turned in another solid year but did regress a tad in 2009. Much of the blame rests with the Steelers’ weak O-Line play for much of the season—Big Ben just didn’t have time to throw. Plus, having both RB’s Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall go down to injuries certainly meant Miller was getting more attention from the linebackers and safeties. Both areas should improve in 2009, which should lift the numbers for Roethlisberger and the passing game. Expect Miller to rebound in 2009.
10. Tony Scheffler/Broncos
Finally, we round out our list with a wild-card, the one guy on this board with the potential to have dramatically better numbers than his draft position would indicate. Of course, he could also continue to battle injuries and ruin your fantasy season…but let’s stay positive here. When he’s played, he’s been a favorite target of QB Jay Cutler (they were roommates during their first season). One of these seasons, he’s going to stay healthy for all 16 and make a dramatic difference in the plight of your fantasy football team. Worth a later flyer for sure.
The One Notable Exception: Jeremy Shockey/Saints
Meet the NFC’s version of Kellen Winslow Jr.—tats and all. Huge talent, questionable smarts and a body that’s taken too many beatings. 2009 will be a make or break year for Shockey and his sour attitude won’t make things any easier. The Saints offense seemed to do pretty well without him and Billy Miller is a serviceable replacement. He could surprise us, but our money says that Shockey’s best days are behind him.
